International oil market has been fluctuated dramatically these years,(the oil price even reached 147dollas per barrel high in 2008),which has brought significant impact to our economic development.With the increasing amount and dependence to oil import,oil price would play a more and more important role within those factors affecting our economy.So, research on the relationship between the oil price and our economic development,on the basis of integrating international oil price tendency with our economic development principle,will be necessary and helpful to deal with the impact of oil price fluctuation proactively,and further,to keep our economic growth.On the basis of both qualitative and quantitative method,cointergration analysis method, which is widely used when studying relationships between economic variances with non-balanced time sequence,was used to analyze the relation between international oil price and main index of our economic development within the effective time scope.It was found that cointergration relations exist between international oil price and economic development. It can be concretely described that:International oil price has some cointergration relations with our GDP,CPI,and import/export amount as well.The impact of oil price will be positive to the entire index on short term;while on long term,the impact of oil price will be positive to CPI,but negative to GDP,and import/export amount.So conclusions can be draw that: generally speaking,dramatic increase of oil price will put negative impact to our economy, which means GDP growth decelerating,CPI index boosting,and import/export amount decreasing.This phenomenon will exist long and became significant,since our economy is more and more depending on the import of oil.To deal with that problem,we need to establish an integrate oil strategy system,transfer our economic structure and economic growth model,and also adjust structure of both domestic industrial and foreign trade,so can we decrease the negative impact of oil price to our economy.

Since entering the 21st century,large fluctuations in international oil prices had a great impact on the world economy.With the continuous development of China’s economy,oil import is also increasing. Grasping the relationship between international oil prices and oil’s supply and demand,which has an important reference value on the development of the new situation of China’s energy strategy.Based on the question mentioned before,besides,taking the current international energy situation into consideration, some factors will be concluded. In this period, analyzing on the characteristics of oil and using qualitative and quantitative method will be combined.Then,from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative research and proved the existence of a certain degree of correlation between them, employing Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test, the relevance between the oil prices and supply is going to be calculated . Based on the result, the mathematical model about the relationship can be established, also, certain empirical analysis is needed. Especially in study of the relationship between the international oil prices and demand, we get a number of valuable results,on the contrary, there are insignificant results between the relationship between China’s oil prices and supply.Through theoretical and empirical analysis, combined with China’s current oil supply and demand,volatile international the status as well,some measures and suggestions will be given in the end . And in this part, suggestions like building the oil markets, improving the national oil reserve system, and developing alternative energy sources and promoting the extensive international energy cooperation,will be discussed.

This study theoretically and empirically analyzes the influencing factors of oil price and evaluates weights of these factors. From theoretical view, many particularities in the oil pricing system are found comparing to the normal one basing on the characteristics of oil trading. Analyzing the oil pricing system in the view of supply and demand theory, game theory, theory of industrial organization and political economics can not only evaluate traditional influences of supply and demand which highly affect the oil price, but also discover the interferences from global finance market and international political circumstance. This structure is the foundation of theoretic analysis in this paper.From the empirically view, historical analysis and econometric model researches construct the empirical study in the paper. In the historical analysis, the study recalls the history of oil price fluctuation in 1960s and explains causes of the fluctuation. In the empirical analysis, the study uses Dynamic VAR model to go Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Model Analysis. Results of these tests prove that there are long term and shout term formulas which describe the relationship between oil price and influencing factors. In the long term, the structure of supply and demand is the main influencing factor upon the oil price. The supply part is formed by the policies of OPEC, the oil production outside the OPEC, the emergencies happened in main oil-producing countries. The demand part contacts with the world economy, the production of coal and nature gas, the development of energy saving technologies and the popularity of the energy saving awareness. All the factors mentioned above work together to decide the long term trend of oil price. In the short term, because of the rigid supply and demand system the furious price fluctuation in recent years is caused by uncertainties in futures market and foreign exchange market and by some changes in demand part. Among these factors, the development of future market is the main reason that causing the oil price fluctuation. In the second, the undulation of the exchange rate especially U.S. dollar exchange rate is another important reason causing the fluctuation of oil price. At last, it is the world economy that affects the oil price.Based on the analysis above, this study suggests that our country should reinforce the influence of world crude and refined oil price, establish oil reserve system, consummate domestic future market and improve the legal and administrative system referring to the oil pricing, in order to reduce the bad impact from oil price fluctuation.

For three oil companies of China, international oil price has the biggest influence on Sinopec, and refining sector’s performance has the closest relation with international oil price, so this paper chose Sinopec refinery enterprises as object of study. For Sinopec refinery enterprises, on one hand, the purchasing price of crude oil is in accordance with international oil price, on the other hand, product prices remain in a stable and low level according to national policy, thus the price risk will be formed. If the oil prices rise sharply and the national development and reform commission gives a certain of discount and price adjustment does not reach the designated position, just like previous oil prices adjustment, profit of refinery enterprises of Sinopec will not be protected.Under high oil price background, although as national economic backbone state-owned enterprises, Sinopec may enjoy country huge financial subsidies to conceal the refining enterprises’losses, Sinopec refinery enterprises necessarily take measures to optimize the operating and improve efficiency by themselves, but not blindly hiding below country’s “umbrella”. When the oil price fluctuates fiercely and frequently, whether Sinopec refinery enterprises can minimize the losses when oil prices are not in favor of the enterprise, which is a very important problem. Because of the importance of oil and the wide margin fluctuation of the price, Sinopec refinery enterprises are facing increasing price risk.Therefore, the paper’s idea is to construct a information system, called oil price risk forecasting and early-warning management system, which can obtain warning signal in advance and kill oil price risk in the bud by setting up special organization, using proper regulatory instrument, adoptting scientific method and appropriate measures.This article takes analyzing the international oil prices fluctuating characters , influences and international oil price risk to as the starting point; then it establishes oil price fluctuating risk forecasting early-warning management system, in order to predict the price risk; at last, it puts forward the security system of early-warning, including building oil risk management organization, completing international oil price monitoring, i.e. establishing early warning information system, perfecting risk emergency treatment system and structuring long-term mechanism of dissolving oil price fluctuating risk actively, aiming at providing some of reference for sinopec to avoid or reduce oil price fluctuating risk.In addition, many methods such as regression analysis method, the cointegration analysis and grey forecasting method are combined during forecasting and early-warning system establishing process, and verifies the practical applicability of the system with the enterprise specific data, the results demonstrates that the oil price risk forecasting and early-warning system designed by the paper is suitable for Sinopec refinery enterprises.

As the major strategic material and chemical material, oil has an important influence in national economic development of a country. In recent years, with the rapid development of China economy and the constantly accelerating of industrialization, the demand for oil increases growingly, while the domestic oil production lags far behind, so resulting in a gap between its supply and demand has expanded year-by-year, the demand for foreign dependency has increased, and the influence of substantial fluctuations of international oil price on China macroeconomic becomes more and more obvious. How to understand this influence comprehensively and systematically, which has great significance for stabilizing domestic prices, avoiding the risk of oil imports and establishing China’s energy strategy.To solve this problem, we can find that international oil price fluctuations and inflation may be closely related to each other after a comparative analysis of them, the continued rise in oil price will lead to cost-push inflation. Based on a massive literature research, through theoretical analysis, we find out the transmission mechanism from international oil price fluctuations to the effects of inflation. Then, using relevant data about them to do statistical analysis of their association, and researching on the impact of domestic related industry based on the analysis of the specific pathway which the international oil price affects the inflation in China. Finally, by establishing co-integration model and vector error correction model, we analysis the long-term balance and short-term fluctuation between them. Co-integration test shows that international oil price and China’s inflation rate are in a long-term balance and the international oil price has big influence on inflation. Through the vector error correction model, we know the error correction term has a reverse correction mechanism for the rate of inflation when the short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium, but this mechanism does not work on international oil price, and in the short term, the inflation rate will be subjected to lag one month and two months’positive role from international oil price. Granger causality tests show that international oil price is the unidirectional granger causality of our inflation rate, which shows further more that international oil price have an impact on inflation in China. Moreover, we make the imitable analysis for international oil price having an impact on inflation in China, so we can test the model that has stronger stability, and this model can make explanation and analysis for inflation’s change. With the consideration of China’s actual situation and the conclusions of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, giving the relating policy suggestions to respond to international oil price fluctuations at the end of this paper.